
Oil fell on Friday and was set for its first monthly decline since November after an Oval Office clash between Trump and Zelenskiy. Traders also weighed new U.S. tariffs and Iraq's resumption of Kurdistan exports, with Brent at $73.18.
Expected Iraqi export resumption and possible Russian supply gains add bearish pressure on crude, lowering energy costs for feed logistics.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.