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StoneX's Josh Linville says the global phosphate market's main issue is China, with possible further export restrictions on urea and phosphate. He notes Chinese government strategy has already lowered domestic prices and raised inventories.
Saudi Arabian production is also referenced as a supply factor.
Expected Chinese export curbs would tighten global phosphate supply and lift prices, raising fertilizer costs for crop producers and indirectly feed grain production costs.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleApr 4, 2025After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 129 past bullish policy events, UREA moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
