
CME live cattle and hog futures fell by their daily limits on April 4 after China announced 34% tariffs on US goods. June live cattle closed at 198.2 cents/lb after a contract high the prior day, and June lean hogs fell to a seven-month low of 91.55 cents/lb.
Fears that tariffs and a possible recession would cut US meat demand, along with China's 81% total tariff on US pork, pushed hog and cattle prices lower.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.