
Indian wheat escaped heat damage thanks to rain and cool nights during the maturing phase. Wheat stocks at the state grain agency reached 11.8 million tonnes on April 1, well above the buffer norm, and procurement has begun in major states.
Large government stocks and a robust harvest reduce India's need for imports and reinforce ample domestic supply, which is bearish for world wheat prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 27 past bearish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.1%), and -1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.