
Industry officials expect India's 2020 rice exports to rise about 42% to a record 14 million tonnes, up from 9.9 million tonnes in 2019. The increase is attributed to drought-reduced shipments from Thailand and lower Vietnamese output in the Mekong Delta, along with a weaker rupee.
Indian stockpiles are also large.
Higher Indian shipments fill the gap left by Thai and Vietnamese shortfalls and could cap global rice prices. Large Indian inventories also reduce state purchases from farmers.
After 27 past bearish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.1%), and -1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.