India's rice reserves are at a two-decade high, with stocks equal to over a tenth of global annual production. Forecasts point to another record crop in 2025-26 after early monsoon rains lifted planted acreage 58% by June 20.
Thai prices have fallen almost 40% from their January 2024 peak.
Massive Indian stockpiles and a likely record crop point to abundant export supply, which is bearish for global rice prices.
After 27 past bearish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.1%), and -1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.