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About 80% of the Arkansas rice crop was harvested by early October, with yields predicted at 163-164 bushels per acre, slightly below last year's 166.4. Harvest progress is on par with five-year averages, and quality has been good despite a difficult season.
Yields near last year's level and good quality keep U.S. rough rice supply ample, a modestly bearish factor for rice prices.
After 27 past bearish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.1%), and -1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.