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A Chinese policy blog reports Beijing's April implementation plan targets a 7% cut in feed use per kilogram of animal product by 2030 and caps soymeal at 10% of feed. March soybean imports fell 36.8% year on year to a 17-year low, with Q1 grain imports down 40.8%.
Sharply weaker Chinese import demand and a formal soymeal cap are bearish for soybeans and soymeal, pressuring export prices from Brazil and the US. Alternative feed ingredients such as by-products could also reduce demand for corn and meal.
chinapolicyagri.substack.comMatthew NicolMay 1, 2025After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
