
Soybean futures traded at their highest level in eight months on small declines in weekly crop ratings. Support also came from a positive biofuels mandate, after the administration had not yet released proposed biomass-based diesel volumes.
Expected higher biomass-based diesel volumes boost demand for soybean oil and support soybean crush, which lifts soybean and soybean oil prices while meal is pressured by greater crush.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.