Oil gains on supply concerns as wildfires disrupt Canada supply, OPEC+ keeps output plans unchanged

After 40 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -3.7% to +5.3%), and +6.1% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2020Oil Gains as U.S. Gulf Output and Refineries Halted Before Storm - Bloomberg+1.5%
• Sep 15, 2020Oil jumps nearly 3% as Gulf Coast storm forces output cuts+5.5%
• Jan 16, 2026Oil prices rise as supply risk remain in focus+2.8%
• Dec 23, 2022Storm cuts U.S. oil, gas, power output, sending prices higher+3.3%
• Oct 1, 2022Oil rises from 9-month low on U.S. Gulf supply cuts, softer dollar+16.5%

After 24 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.8% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -1.9% to +5.2%), and +6.3% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2020Oil Gains as U.S. Gulf Output and Refineries Halted Before Storm - Bloomberg+2.2%
• Sep 15, 2020Oil jumps nearly 3% as Gulf Coast storm forces output cuts+4.6%
• Jan 16, 2026Oil prices rise as supply risk remain in focus-0.3%
• Oct 1, 2022Oil rises from 9-month low on U.S. Gulf supply cuts, softer dollar+11.3%
• Feb 19, 2025Arctic blast sends natural gas to highest since 2022, and oil ticks up on supply worries - MarketWatch-4.1%

After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.

• Jan 26, 2026ULSD Rises Amid Winter Storm, Oil Slips on Output Returns+9.4%
• Aug 23, 2020Oil Gains as U.S. Gulf Output and Refineries Halted Before Storm - Bloomberg+0.4%
• Dec 23, 2022Storm cuts U.S. oil, gas, power output, sending prices higher+6.4%
• Jan 27, 2026Marine Gasoil on East Coast Surges as Frigid Weather Pressures Diesel Market Higher - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company-4.8%
• Jan 27, 2026Transatlantic Diesel Spread Surges as Winter Storm Disrupts US - Bloomberg-4.8%