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Soybean oil futures surged after the EPA reviewed refinery exemptions, which signaled more oil going into biofuels. Energy market weakness later pressured prices.
US soybean exports remain stalled because China has not resumed purchases, while Brazil dominates Chinese imports.
EPA biofuel policy is lifting soybean oil demand, but the lack of Chinese buying keeps soybean meal and bean export demand weak. The divergence favors oil over meal and beans.
stonex.comGlobal AuthorAug 27, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
