
StoneX's Canadian durum and oats outlook for early October notes Statistics Canada's July 31 stocks estimates, with durum stocks at 496,000 tonnes versus 669,000 a year earlier and oats at 507,000 versus 670,000. Oat bids remain soft as exporters hold the bids and rain delays have downgraded some quality.
Lower carry-in stocks support durum, while soft oat bids reflect ample supply and weak end-user demand, keeping oat prices under pressure.
After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.