Oil Hits 1-Month High as Next Week’s Midterms Set Up an Iran Test

After 654 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.6% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Apr 23, 2019Oil hits nearly 6-month highs as US aims to slash Iran's crude exports-1.0%
• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%
• Jan 14, 2026WTI Nears Three-Month High As Iranian Protests Stoke Global Oil Market Concerns-0.3%
• Apr 21, 2019Oil Leaps to 6-Month High as U.S. Vows to Strangle Iran Exports - Bloomberg+0.4%
• Oct 4, 2024What's next for oil, gas prices as Middle East tensions heat up? | AP News+2.4%

After 624 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.2% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Apr 23, 2019Oil hits nearly 6-month highs as US aims to slash Iran's crude exports-3.4%
• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%
• Jan 14, 2026WTI Nears Three-Month High As Iranian Protests Stoke Global Oil Market Concerns-0.8%
• Apr 21, 2019Oil Leaps to 6-Month High as U.S. Vows to Strangle Iran Exports - Bloomberg-1.1%
• Jul 8, 2026Soybean Oil Hits Three-Week High as US-Iran Ceasefire Dissolves - Bloomberg+12.5%