
Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on January 19 after China cut tariffs on Canadian canola to a combined 15% from 84%, and Indonesia said it would not implement its B50 biodiesel mandate this year. Support came from palm's discount to soyoil and sunflower oil and from upcoming festival demand.
The April contract fell 15 ringgit to 4,057 ringgit per ton.
Cancelling the B50 mandate removes expected biodiesel demand for palm, while cheaper Canadian canola may ease competition for rival oilseed meal and oil supplies. Net pressure is mildly bearish for palm.
After 400 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.