
USDA's January WASDE raised projected US soybean supplies and cut 2025-26 export estimates to about 1.6 billion bushels, down 60 million. The season average farm price was lowered to $10.20 a bushel, 30 cents below the December forecast.
Lower exports are linked to larger Brazilian harvests.
Bigger US supplies and lower export demand are bearish for soybeans and meal, as the market must absorb more beans domestically or in storage.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.