
U.S. diesel exports to Europe hit an all-time high in January after the EU strengthened its ban on Russian-derived fuel imports. Discounted Russian diesel displaced U.S. supply to Brazil, reshuffling global diesel flows.
Shifting diesel trade flows tighten or loosen regional supply and feed freight and crushing costs, which can pressure soybean meal and feed margins through higher transport and energy prices.
After 26 past bullish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.
After 12 past neutral trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.3% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.2% to +4.6%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.