
The February WASDE showed US 2025/26 ending stocks of 350 million bushels for soybeans, 2.127 billion for corn and 931 million for wheat. Corn was well below the 2.260 billion expected, while soybeans and wheat came in above expectations.
The corn shortfall versus expectations points to supply constraints that could lift corn prices, while the soybean and wheat surpluses limit upside in those markets.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.