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Kasikorn Research Center expects the baht to weaken to 34-35 per US dollar if the Middle East conflict lasts two months. That scenario assumes oil prices rise above $100 per barrel.
A prolonged conflict pushing oil above $100 would sharply raise Thailand's import bill and weaken the baht, increasing costs for imported feed and energy.
bangkokpost.comSomruedi BanchongduangMar 19, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
