
Soybean oil prices have risen alongside crude since the start of the Iran war, according to AgMarket.Net's Matt Bennett. He points to the EPA's finalized RFS rule mandating record biodiesel and renewable diesel blending volumes for 2026-27 and to countries turning to domestic feedstocks to lower fuel costs.
Record blending mandates create structural domestic demand for soybean oil, while high diesel prices strengthen the economics of biofuel feedstocks. Strong oil demand supports crush margins and the soymeal supply that follows.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.