
An economist discusses how the closed US border with Mexico may accelerate expansion of Mexico's beef industry. Historically, informal cattle trade from Central America through southern Mexico has been significant.
Longer-term Mexican herd expansion could eventually ease US feeder shortages, but this is a structural view with little immediate price effect.
After 65 past neutral trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.4%), and +2.5% over 20.
After 14 past neutral trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.3%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.