
China customs data show Q1 2026 fertilizer exports rose 14.1% in volume to 8.16 million tons and imports rose 30.5% to 5.0 million tons. Export and import values both grew sharply, with March exports up 24.8% year on year.
Strong Chinese export volumes and rising imports indicate robust global fertilizer trade at higher prices, reinforcing cost pressure on nitrogen and phosphate supplies for farmers.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.