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US buyers are redirecting imported fertilizer to overseas markets as the Iran war drives up global prices. Fertilizer prices have soared with more than 30% of global exports caught in the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.
Diverting cargoes away from the US tightens domestic supply and supports US nitrogen prices. It also shows global competition for product is intensifying.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.