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A strong heat wave is forecast for Western Europe in the last full week of May, with temperatures in French wheat districts reaching about 32 C. France's soft wheat crop was rated 80% good to very good as of May 18, a steady rating and well above last year.
Heat during grain fill can cut yields, so this raises risk to the French crop and supports EU wheat prices. The impact depends on how long the heat lasts.
dtnpf.comBryce AndersonMay 26, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
