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French farmers expect damage to 12 to 20% of their wheat area from non-stop rain and low sunshine. The conditions recall a weather-hit crop in France eight years ago.
Losses of this size in the EU's largest wheat producer would cut exportable supply and lift wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.