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The IGC raised its 2026-27 total grain production forecast by 12 million tonnes to 2.426 billion tonnes, which would still be 2% below 2025-26. Wheat is seen at 821 million tonnes and corn at 1.310 billion tonnes, and record soybean output of 442 million tonnes is expected.
The IGC also noted an El Niño event now underway.
Larger output forecasts for maize, wheat and barley add to global supply and pressure prices. Record consumption and trade expectations, plus El Niño risk for Southern Hemisphere crops, limit the downside.
world-grain.comArvin DonleyJun 25, 2026After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
