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US and Mexican officials began a new round of USMCA talks in Washington on June 16 focused on agriculture and energy. President Trump has said he is not looking to renew the agreement.
Farm groups are asking for a 16-year extension with duty-free farm trade.
Possible non-renewal of USMCA would put duty-free access to Mexico and Canada at risk, weighing on US grain and feed export demand. Markets may price in higher trade risk.
agrolatam.comMarcus EllingtonJun 16, 2026After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
