India's inflation might move higher to 5% in FY27 led by food, energy prices: BoB report

After 43 past macro events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -2.0% to +2.3%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jul 12, 2022India's retail inflation remains above 7% in June, more rate hikes seen | Reuters+4.7%
• Mar 22, 2019Strong rupee pushes rice prices to seven-month high, dampening exports | Commodity - Food & Edible Oils - Business Standard-1.6%
• Feb 19, 2025How the falling rupee is lowering Indian food prices for UAE shoppers-4.0%
• Aug 21, 2025Japan core inflation dips to lowest since March as rice prices cool-4.4%
• Feb 18, 2026Platts Thai 5% white rice at near one-month low; highest priced in Asia | S&P Global-8.3%

After 152 past macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.1%), and -0.7% over 20.

• Jul 12, 2022India's retail inflation remains above 7% in June, more rate hikes seen | Reuters+7.2%
• Apr 30, 2021Inflation-tolerant Fed will boost commodity prices | Reuters-5.5%
• Mar 4, 2026FAO Food Price Index rises in March as Near East conflict raises energy costs+1.0%
• Sep 25, 2026What’s behind the latest surge in grain and oilseed prices?-2.9%
• Jul 15, 2022Volatility in the markets again this week from WASDE report and inflationary pressures - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets+8.2%