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An IFDC bulletin draws on IFPRI modeling to argue that trade and subsidy policies will determine how severely the Strait of Hormuz disruption affects food systems. It notes the closure put about one-third of seaborne fertilizer trade at risk and roughly doubled urea prices in the early months of the crisis.
The analysis is policy commentary rather than a new supply event, so it has little direct price impact. It does underline that export restrictions and subsidy choices could re-tighten fertilizer supply if the disruption returns.
ifdc.orgAfricaFertilizer Staff, IFDC Staff, Sustain Africa StaffJun 23, 2026After 199 past policy events, Urea moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 250 past policy events, DAP moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.6% to +1.3%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
