
EUR/USD traded just under 1.1400 after a third straight session of falling crude, with Brent near $84 and WTI near $79 as the US-Iran stand-down entered its fourth day. Euro-area inflation eased to 2.8% in June, and markets still priced a September ECB hike.
Falling crude removes an energy-driven inflation driver, which trims biofuel-related support for vegetable oils and softens the energy-linked cost of feed production.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.