Traders stick with ECB rate-hike bets as oil touches $100 once more

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2026Canadian dollar steadies as oil lifts BoC rate hike bets - The Globe and Mail+2.2%
• May 28, 2023Oil ticks up as markets weigh U.S. debt deal, rate hike possibility-0.4%
• Aug 31, 2023ForexLive European FX news wrap: Euro falls as ECB rate hike bets abate+6.4%
• May 15, 2026Dollar climbs for fifth straight day as Fed rate hike bets grow-4.4%
• Jun 28, 2023Nasdaq ends up, dollar strengthens as Powell hints at more rate hikes | Reuters+6.1%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• May 28, 2023Oil ticks up as markets weigh U.S. debt deal, rate hike possibility+0.0%
• Jun 28, 2023Nasdaq ends up, dollar strengthens as Powell hints at more rate hikes | Reuters+4.7%
• Nov 23, 2020Oil Hits March High With Transition Stoking Rally Across Markets - Bloomberg+7.1%
• Sep 28, 2026Rand weakens as oil prices rise and rate-hike fears support dollar+6.5%
• May 26, 2026Rupee Slips As Oil Jumps And Rate Bets Build - Finimize-9.0%