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The USDA's July WASDE lowered US 2026-27 wheat production to 1.536 billion bushels, the smallest crop since 1970-71, and cut world wheat ending stocks to 272.84 million tonnes. It also lowered US 2026-27 corn ending stocks to 1.79 billion bushels, below analyst expectations.
Wheat futures rose about 3% ahead of the report on Sea of Azov shipping disruption from the Russia-Ukraine war.
A sharply smaller US wheat crop and tighter world stocks support wheat and corn prices, and the Azov disruption adds a geopolitical premium. Buyers of feed grains should expect firmer prices through the rest of the season.
farmtario.comGlen Hallick, ReutersJul 10, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA lowered US wheat production to the smallest since 1970 and cut world ending stocks, a supply shock that supported the rally.
