
The Miller Magazine article summarizes the IGC's first 2023/24 wheat forecast of 787m t, about 2% lower year on year but still above average. Cumulative output in eight major exporters is seen 14m t lower at 387m t, and carryover stocks are forecast to tighten.
A slightly smaller world wheat crop with tightening stocks supports prices, though the output remains ample relative to demand.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.