
The USDA projects global wheat carryover stocks falling to 258.8 million tonnes in 2025, the lowest in nearly a decade, despite record production of 793.2 million tonnes. Russian output is seen down over 10% and European output down 9%, while US ending stocks are projected up 17%.
CBOT wheat is forecast at $5.80 per bushel.
Falling global carryover from Russian and European shortfalls tightens export supplies and supports wheat prices, though heavy US stocks limit the rally.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.