
The August WASDE cut the national corn yield 2.3 bushels to 180.7 bu/ac, offset by higher harvested acres, leaving production roughly unchanged at about 16 billion bushels. Strong export demand lowered ending stocks by 137 million bushels to about 1.7 billion.
Western Corn Belt yields fell, while Iowa's yield rose.
Strong demand and a lower carryout tighten the corn balance sheet, which supports prices. Analysts still see yield risk in the western Corn Belt if the crop falls short of the USDA figure.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.