
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said Trump's Belarus potash plan was never realistic and that Belarus ships its potash east. Trump has reportedly recommitted to Canadian potash, and Josh Linville says supply is ample and phosphate and nitrogen are the bigger concerns.
Confirmed reliance on Canadian potash and ample supply keep potash prices steady, so the bigger fertilizer risk for feed costs remains nitrogen and phosphate.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.