
South African retail urea prices were flat week-on-week at R7,028 per tonne on Sept. 26, while MAP fell 1.7% and KCl fell 1.7%.
Urea prices continued to firm as an Indian tender drew buyers into the market. October product availability was becoming very limited.
Tightening urea availability after the Indian tender supports nitrogen prices globally, raising input costs for South African and other feed grain producers.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The India tender drew buyers in and limited October availability, which supports firmer urea prices going into the move, though the report is dated before the move and covers South African retail prices.
On Sept 27 it noted urea firming as an Indian tender pulled buyers in and October availability tightened, which is a demand and supply setup that likely carried into the Sept 30 move.
Urea was firming on the Indian tender with limited October availability, which set up tight supply and buying interest before the move, though it predates the window.