
Urea prices in the Middle East and Egypt rose this week, with Egyptian FOB values climbing from USD 380 to 400/tonne and Middle Eastern sales near USD 360/tonne. Iranian volumes fell on gas problems, lifting Iranian prices to USD 320/tonne, and China is not expected to export until after Lunar New Year.
Reduced Iranian supply and Chinese export absence, combined with seasonal buying from the US, Europe, Thailand and Australia, point to higher urea prices, raising input costs for nitrogen-dependent feed grain production.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.