Potash prices corrected sharply, with the KCl granular price down 23.8% week on week. Urea firmed slightly after India announced a tender for 1 million tons for delivery by 1 June 2023, and Brazilian urea rose about $20/t on the news.
India's tender is a large import call that supports urea prices and keeps the nitrogen decline from continuing. Potash weakness reflects softer demand and eases phosphorus and potassium input costs for feed producers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.