
Lowest offers into National Fertilizers Limited's urea tender for October shipment came in around $340-350/t CFR, with 536,000 t offered. Middle East spot values were expected to consolidate in the mid-$320s/t FOB, and Russian prilled urea was expected to correct into the $280s/t FOB Baltic.
The Indian tender sets the global urea benchmark, so offers at these levels point to firm nitrogen pricing into the fourth quarter.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.