The Canola Tumble Is a Crowded Trade Waiting on Canada's Harvest Count

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.

• Aug 21, 2018In the new season will increase the demand for canola and canola-5.3%
• Nov 5, 2024Grain and Biofuel Outlook: Biofuels Creating Needed Demand for Ample U.S. Harvests+2.5%
• Oct 25, 2018Soybeans Caught in Trade Tussle | St. Louis Fed-1.3%
• Jan 18, 2019Canada unfazed by oilseed crossfire with canola set for record+1.9%
• Oct 31, 2018U.S.-China trade turmoil could be a boon for Canadian farmers — but not without some pain first - Financial Post+4.6%

After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 12, 2017USDA Sees Larger Canadian Wheat and Canola Crops-1.7%
• Apr 1, 2024The Grain Council raised the forecast for the world sunflower harvest by 600 thousand tons+0.2%
• Nov 11, 2016Soybeans, corn down watching end of harvest, South America - Brownfield Ag News-2.1%
• Feb 16, 2023Canola exports, soy oil and meal all affect canola’s price | The Western Producer+1.9%
• Jul 1, 2025Argentina finishing big soybean harvest+2.7%