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A St. Louis Fed analysis notes that the U.S. exported 46% of its 2017 soybean production, with China taking 58% of U.S. soybean exports. The authors say economic models point to reduced U.S. soybean production and a negative impact on both countries from the 25% Chinese tariff.
The analysis underscores how dependent U.S. soybean prices are on Chinese demand, supporting a bearish outlook for soybeans and meal. It is background analysis rather than new market-moving information.
stlouisfed.orgOct 25, 2018After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
