
The International Grains Council raised its 2024-25 world sunflower seed crop forecast by 600 kt to 58.5 Mt on higher yield expectations. Russia is forecast at 17.4 Mt, Ukraine's estimate was lowered, and the EU, Argentina, and others are expected to produce more.
A larger global sunseed crop expands future meal and oil supply, which is mildly bearish for sunflower meal prices later in the marketing year.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.