The dollar rebounded as markets priced roughly an 80% chance of a December Fed hike and oil prices rose. Fed Chair Warsh said inflation is elevated and the economy strong, while the ECB was expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.5%.
Stronger dollar expectations and higher oil together tighten conditions for dollar-priced grains and oilseeds, while energy-driven inflation keeps input costs elevated for feed buyers.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.