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ING economists expect the US dollar to remain resilient as markets re-price higher Fed rate expectations, with a 75 bp hike in July possible. They see the DXY returning above 105 in the short term.
A firmer dollar tends to pressure dollar-denominated commodity prices and can dampen import demand from emerging markets, which weighs on feed grain and oilseed prices.
octaafrica.netJun 20, 2022After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
