On March 31 the US President announced the largest strategic petroleum reserve release in US history, adding an average of 1 million barrels per day to the market for six months. The release responds to reduced oil supply from the war in Ukraine that is pushing up oil and gas prices.
The administration also urged producers to increase output on leased acres, and the article covers Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act funding for inland waterways projects.
Extra SPR barrels add crude and diesel supply, which eases energy costs that feed into fertilizer, freight and feed production. The release is a bearish factor for energy prices, which lowers the cost base for grain and oilseed transport.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.