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European gas spike curtails ammonia output; China restricts fertilizer exports. Urea and DAP hit multi-year highs.
WikipediaAfter 113 past macro events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.3%), and +3.7% over 20.
After 45 past macro events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.1%), and -0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 260 past macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -4.5% to +7.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The European natural gas price spike raised input costs and curtailed ammonia and urea output, while Chinese export restrictions cut seaborne urea supply, directly driving the September 2021 price surge.
The European natural gas price spike raised input costs and curtailed ammonia and urea output, while Chinese export restrictions cut seaborne urea supply, directly driving the September 2021 price surge.
