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D4 biomass-based diesel RINs traded near $1.50 to $1.60 through mid-2023 after the EPA kept 2023 D4 blending levels unchanged in June. RIN values then fell to a closing low just under 80 cents on October 10.
Lower RIN values reduce the incentive to produce biomass-based diesel, which weakens feedstock demand for soybean oil and other vegetable oils.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.