
Renewable diesel producers face an oversupply that is squeezing US refiner margins. Large producers are willing to accept lower margins to outlast smaller competitors.
Imports under the Biomass-based Diesel Blender's Tax Credit are expected to rise until the credit is replaced by the Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit next year.
Excess renewable diesel output and tax-credit-driven imports weigh on demand for soybean oil and other fats and oils used as feedstock. The planned switch to the PTC should discourage imports and modestly support domestic feedstock demand.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.