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D4 RIN prices fell 53.4% in 2023 and hit 79.50 cents on Nov. 7, their lowest since 2020.
Domestic D4 biomass-based diesel production surpassed the 2.82 billion gallon 2023 mandate, helped by renewable diesel growth and a narrow BO-HO spread.
Surplus D4 supply and falling RIN values reduce the blending incentive, weakening soybean oil demand from biofuel producers. The D6 shortfall partly supports D4 demand, limiting further declines.
spglobal.comPhillip Herring, Melvin LeeNov 20, 2023After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
