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D4 RINs have fallen about 64% year over year as renewable diesel and SAF overproduction depresses compliance credit values. Inflexible EPA renewable volume obligations are not growing fast enough to absorb new supply, and new policy incentives are expected in 2025.
Overproduction of biofuels with weak credit prices reduces the economic pull for soybean oil feedstock, weighing on soyoil demand and prices.
research.mobiusriskgroup.comMobius ResearchMay 27, 2024After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
